By: Daniel Ogden

With the Tribe victory in Durham, the bleeding has finally stopped. A season that started out filled with hope after a heart attack comeback in Villanova and a great home opener, quickly turned sour after Patriot League play turned out to not be Lehigh and a bunch of cupcakes. After getting punched in the mouth in Bethlehem, the Tribe dropped two in a row to Northeast Jesuit schools at ZABLE of all places (James II of England/VII of Scotland is laughing somewhere). Those losses sandwiching a pay for play game against Duke.

However, on the return trip to Durham, the Tribe gutted out a win against the NC Central Eagles. It took execution and resilience from all three sides of the ball, especially Special Teams. With that, what do the Tribe have to gain from this season as we look to the back half of the season. Do we have a chance at the post season or are we playing for pride and to not be at the bottom of the Patriot League.

If William & Mary were to win out, they would go 8-4 and 6-3 in the Patriot League. With this information in mind, I decided to look back at the Committee’s past decisions on 4 loss at-large bids to see if William & Mary still had a chance if everything were to come out Tribe. I went back to 2021 because I thought it would be a big enough sample size, plus with the proliferation of 12 game schedules in 2024, the 2024 and 2025 seasons will be more indicative of how the Committee is currently thinking, on top of those seasons being the most recent.

4 Loss or Worse Teams to Make the Post-Season Since 2021

2021 – 3 teams

• S. Ill. (MVFC) 7-4 (5-3)
• S. Dak. (MVFC) 7-4 (5-3)
• N. Iowa (MVFC) 6-5 (4-4)

2022 – 6 teams

• EKU (WAC-ASUN) 7-4 (3-2) (Jax St ruled ineligible)
• Idaho (Big Sky) 7-4 (6-2)
• Montana (Big Sky) 7-4 (4-4)
• Gardner-Webb (Big South) 6-5 (5-0)
• Delaware (CAA) 7-4 (4-4)
• N. Dak. (MVFC) 7-4 (5-3)

2023 – 8 teams

• Sac St (Big Sky) 7-4 (4-4)
• Gardner-Webb (Big South-OVC) 7-4 (5-1)
• Youngstown St (MVFC) 7-4 (5-3)
• UND (MVFC) 7-4 (5-3)
• S. Ill. (MVFC) 7-4 (4-4)
• Duquesne (NEC) 7-4 (6-1)
• Chattanooga (SoCon) 7-4 (6-2)
• Nicholls (Southland) 6-4 (7-0)

2024 – 7 Teams

• NAU (Big Sky) 8-4 (6-2)
• Montana (Big Sky) 8-4 (5-3)
• UT Martin (Big South-OVC) 8-4 (6-2)
• UNH (CAA) 8-4 (6-2)
• Cent Conn. (NEC) 7-5 (5-1)
• ACU (UAC) 8-4 (7-1)
• EKU (UAC) 8-4 (6-2)

2025 – 9 teams

• UNH (CAA) 8-4 (6-2)
• Cent Conn (NEC) 8-4 (6-1)
• S. Dak. (MVFC) 8-4 (6-2)
• Ill. St. (MVFC) 8-4 (5-3)
• N. Dak (MVFC) 7-5 (5-3)
• Youngstown St (MVFC) 8-4 (5-3)
• SDSU (MVFC) 8-4 (4-4)
• Lamar (Southland) 8-4 (5-3)
• ACU (UAC) 8-4 (7-1)

Since 2021, 33 total teams with 4 or more regular season losses have made the FCS playoffs. The odds have gotten a lot easier with the expansion of the FCS schedule from 11 to 12 games in 2024, hence why it has stayed up at about 7 to 9 teams a year since then.

Now to get a more realistic chance of Tribe odds, let’s take out all the auto bid teams with 4 losses and the at-large bids from the Big Sky and MVFC since they have juggernaut schedules.

That leaves us with 7 teams that are in a comparable position to the Tribe:

• 2022 Delaware (CAA) 7-4 (4-4)
• 2023 Chattanooga (SoCon) 7-4 (6-2)
• 2024 UT Martin (BS-OVC) 8-4 (6-2)
• 2024 UNH (CAA) 8-4 (6-2)
• 2024 EKU (UAC) 8-4 (6-2)
• 2025 UNH (CAA) 8-4 (6-2)
• 2025 Lamar (Southland) 8-4 (5-3)

At the very minimum, I can say there is a chance. However, of these 7 teams, 5 of them only had 2 losses in conference play. So the two teams we will examine closely to try and reverse engineer their playoff appearance are 2022 Delaware and 2025 Lamar.

2022 Delaware (7-4; 4-4):

For reference this year, the CAA was one of the top conferences in FCS. The CAA sent 5 teams to the post season: The 10-1 Tribe team as the Conference Champions, an 8-3 New Hampshire, an 8-3 Richmond, and 8-3 Elon along with the Blue Hens. Of note, the Blue Hens made it in as an at large over a 7-4 Rhode Island team that went 5-3 in conference.

Delaware started the season strong by winning 5 in a row: FBS Navy 14-7, rivals Del. State 35-9, No. 17 ranked Rhode Island 42 -21 in Kingston, Hampton 35-3, and Towson 24-10. They first slipped up in Zable, losing 21-27. They beat Morgan State 38-7 at home before losing to Elon on the road by 20. They beat Monmouth at home 49-17 before losing two in a row. First to Richmond at home by 8 points and then in the Battle of the Blue at Villanova by 3 points.

This Delaware team got the nod over Rhode Island, not only because of the head-to-head matchup but also because when this team won, they won big and when this team lost, it was rarely at home and it was not by a lot… until they met South Dakota St in the second round.

2025 Lamar (8-4; 5-3):

The Cardinals of Beaumont, Texas were the third Southland team to make the playoffs this year and a pretty firm at-large bid despite the record. Lamar got blown out the first week by North Texas 51-0 then went on a 7-game win streak:

• No. 4 South Dakota 20-13
• At Texas Southern 31-7
• Central Arkansas 35-32
• Nicholls 24-17
• At East Texas A&M 33-23
• UTRGV 23-21
• At Northwestern State 41-14

The last four games saw Lamar struggle, losing 17-24 to an Incarnate Word team that was struggling all year and ended the season 5-7, only winning 3 games in conference. Lamar would then win against a No 19 ranked SE Louisiana team at home in a 14-12 slugfest. The Cardinals would go on a 2-game losing streak into the selection show:

• At No. 15 Stephen F. Austin 15-26
• McNeese 19-21

McNeese was also not a good team in 2025 (no shade). McNeese went 5-7 overall of which one of those wins was against NAIA Louisiana Christian and 4-4 in conference.

Lamar seemed to have their playoff case elevated by strong ranked wins throughout the season. They were ranked throughout most of the season and were considered an at-large shoo-in up until the selection Sunday, when they were predicted and then revealed to be a part of the last 4 in. Monmouth 9-3 in the CAA was left on the outside looking in this year.

Lamar would go on to lose in the first round to Abilene Christian by 18 points.

2026 William & Mary (Need to be 8-4; 6-3):

What has happened:

• W At No. 8 Villanova 35-32
• W Delaware St 22-15
• L At No. 9 Lehigh 20-44
• L Fordham 27-52
• L At Duke 7-62
• L Holy Cross 14-41
• W At NC Central 17-14

The Tribe were a strong team to start the year, with a massive comeback against a ranked team away and a strong home opener that displayed this team’s knack for winning the turnover and penalty battles.

Travelling up to Bethlehem, the Tribe got caught being flat footed against Lehigh and that started a downward trend, with Patriot League losses against Fordham and Holy Cross sandwiching an FBS blowout. However, the beginning of a season turnaround began this week against North Carolina Central, where the team battled hard to win 17 to 14 in Durham.

What Needs to happen:

In as few words as possible, they need to win. But in more specifics…

Georgetown 1-4

Lehigh blew them out in week 1, Richmond played them close in week 3, they lost to Columbia and Cornell before beating Bucknell. The Hoyas play at Colgate before making the trip south to the Peninsula. William & Mary needs to put this game away early to prove they are a top tier team in the Patriot. This is a home game and above all it is Homecoming. While there are harder games on the schedule, setting the tone here can help the team for the rest of the season, especially if a rowdy home crowd can make a difference.

No. 22 Colgate 4-2

The Raiders just experienced their first FCS loss on October 3^rd against a ranked (No. 20) Harvard team. As of writing this, Colgate is ranked 22 in the STATS poll and 23 in the Coaches Poll. We need them to continue to win. Before the Tribe, they host Georgetown and then head to Richmond. After that they play at Lehigh, home for Lafayette, and then at Bucknell.

The Tribe need to beat Colgate to have any chance at an at-large bid. It will add a great ranked and away win to the team’s resume. Best case scenario, the Raiders end the season 9-3, with the only loss the rest of the season to Mike London and the Tribe. However, odds are they will drop one of Richmond and Lehigh. If the Raiders can end the season with 4 losses, with one of those to Lehigh or Richmond, William & Mary will still have an argument for a quality win and can keep their post-season hopes alive.

Lafayette 1-4

Lafayette is looking like bottom feeders in the Patriot League. The Tribe need to dispose of them and dispose of them easily. Run the score up even. We cannot even leave the possibility that they can compete with us.

Bucknell 1-5

Rinse and repeat Lafayette.

Richmond 5-2

This is the crown jewel of the season; the game that can make it or break it. The Web Weavers have had a start to the season. A 5-game FCS winning streak against broken up by an NC State blowout and ended by a 6-point loss at Fordham. Not a single team faced in the FCS with more than 2 wins, including Fordham.

Before they face the Tribe, the 8 legged dopes face Colgate, Holy Cross, Villanova, and Lehigh. As long as they beat Holy Cross and Villanova, then compete against Colgate and Lehigh no matter the result, it will prime up the Capital Cup to be a deciding factor between two teams at-large bid arguments.

All those hypotheticals being said, we would need to add another, A FAT TRIBE VICTORY.

Our path to the playoffs will have to be similar to Lamar in the Southland last year. The Patriot needs to stay strong at the top while the Tribe wins out and has great wins against the tougher upper crust of the conference. Namely, if Colgate’s only loss the rest of the season is to the Tribe, and the Tribe does not lose, we will be in a position to argue for a chance to go to Nashville.

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If we can get the perfect mix of chaos, comeback, and luck, the Tribe can make the post-season. So, Tribe fans do not give up hope just yet. Worst case scenario, we can just play spoiler for those Henrico County Arachnids.

See you at Zable for Homecoming on Saturday, Oct. 24. LET’S GO TRIBE!

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